ssrn-5339789

Middle East Geopolitics and International Finance: Measuring the Impact of the Iran-Israel War on Global Investment Policy Iqbar Management Department,Universitas Muhammadiyah Palopo Email: Ikbaar03assignment@gmail.com ABSTRACT The geopolitics of the Middle East, particularly the tensions between Iran and Israel, have a significant impact on global economic stability. These tensions, whether in the form of open conflict or military tension, have the potential to affect various aspects of the economy, including global stock markets, energy prices, and international investment policy. This study aims to analyse how Iran-Israel tensions affect global investment policy, focusing on the impact on stock markets, energy prices, and international capital flows. This study aims to analyse how Iran-Israel tensions affect global investment policy, focusing on the impact on stock markets, energy prices, and international capital flows. Through analyses of historical data and interviews with economists, this study identifies patterns of change in global investment strategies due to these geopolitical tensions. The results show that the geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel led to large fluctuations in the stock market, a spike in energy prices, as well as a shift in investment flows to countries considered more politically and economically stable. Global investment policy adapted through risk diversification, greater allocation to safe sectors, and increased investment in developed countries with stable fiscal policies. Keyword: Geopolitics; International Finance; Investment Policy; Stock Market; Energy Prices; INTRODUCTION The geopolitics of the Middle East play a very important role in shaping the global economic landscape. The region is known for its high political tensions, which often have a direct impact on the global economy, both in terms of energy supply and the stability of international financial markets. In recent decades, tensions between Iran and Israel have taken centre stage in the region, with impacts that can be felt far beyond the borders of the two countries. Tensions or even open warfare between these two major countries could have far-reaching effects on global economic policy and alter the course of international investment flows. Political conditions in the Middle East greatly affect the world’s energy supply, as the region is home to some of the largest oil and gas producing countries. Iran and Israel, while differing in many political and ideological aspects, both have a huge -- 1 of 16 -- influence on the global energy market, which makes a conflict between the two potentially dynamic for the world economy. Heightened tensions in the region often lead to spikes in energy prices, especially oil, which can further affect inflation, monetary policy and investment decisions. It is important to understand how global investment policy is adapting to this uncertain geopolitical situation. In this regard, investors, both individuals and large financial institutions, tend to adjust their portfolios to mitigate risks that may arise from political uncertainty. Given the close link between energy prices and investment policies, particularly in developed countries, the impact of the Iran- Israel war can provide a clear picture of how geopolitical tensions can alter the course of international capital flows. The purpose of this study is to explore how tensions between Iran and Israel affect global investment policy. The main focus of this research is on the impact on stock markets, energy prices, and investment decisions by large financial institutions and institutional investors. In this context, it is important to analyse whether these tensions are causing changes in the pattern of investment flows, whether in the energy, technology or emerging markets sectors. A prolonged war or military tension between Iran and Israel could trigger a series of events that change the global investment landscape. One important aspect to consider is how large investors, such as international banks and pension fund managers, react to these geopolitical uncertainties. Using historical data and quantitative analyses, this study aims to identify patterns of changes in investment policies that occurred during periods of geopolitical tension involving these two countries. METHOD This research adopts a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative and qualitative analyses to explore the impact of the Iran-Israel war on global investment policy. This approach was chosen to obtain a more comprehensive picture of the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on financial markets, energy prices, and global investment strategies. In general, this research consists of two main parts: first, the collection and analysis of secondary data covering stock market data, energy prices, and international capital flows; second, interviews with economic experts and institutional investors to gain perspectives on changes in global investment policies in the face of geopolitical tensions. Secondary Data Collection: a) The secondary data used in this study includes three main types that are considered relevant for measuring the impact of geopolitical tensions on global investment policy, namely stock market data, energy prices, and international capital flows. b) Global Stock Market Indices: This research uses historical data from major global stock indices, such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100, and Nikkei 225, -- 2 of 16 -- obtained from reliable sources such as Bloomberg and Reuters. Stock price fluctuations during the period of tension between Iran and Israel will be analysed to identify the direct and indirect impact on global stock market volatility. Sharp drops or rises in global stock markets will be explored to see the market response to geopolitical tensions. c) Energy Prices: As a major energy producing region, the Middle East plays a very important role in the global energy market. Therefore, energy price data, specifically Brent oil and natural gas prices, will be used to gauge the impact of geopolitical tensions on energy price fluctuations. The source of energy price data comes from agencies such as the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC. This research will focus on how Iran- Israel tensions can cause oil prices to spike and affect global energy supply, especially if key shipping lanes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, are disrupted. d) International Capital Flows: Data on capital flows, including foreign direct investment (FDI) and changes in global portfolio allocations, will be collected from international institutions such as the World Bank, IMF, and OECD. This data will provide a snapshot of how large investors and global financial institutions adjust their investment strategies during periods of geopolitical tension. Quantitative Methods: To analyse the impact of geopolitical tensions on global investment policy, this study uses linear regression and correlation analysis. These methods make it possible to identify the relationship between tensions between Iran and Israel and changes in global stock markets, energy prices, and international capital flows. Using historical data from the period of the tensions, regression models will be used to measure the effect of these tensions on these three variables, both in the short and long term. Simple linear regression was used to examine the relationship between the variables by looking at how changes in geopolitical tensions can affect stock market performance, energy price movements, as well as the distribution of international investment flows. In addition, correlation analysis was used to determine the strength of the relationship between the relevant variables. Qualitative Methods: As part of the research method, a qualitative approach was used to dig deeper into the reactions of market participants, including institutional investors, to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In-depth interviews were conducted with a number of economists, market analysts and investment managers from international financial institutions who have in-depth knowledge of the impact of geopolitics on investment decisions. The interviews aimed to gain insights into how these tensions are affecting global asset allocation patterns and investment decisions. -- 3 of 16 -- The interviews will focus on changes in investment strategies, such as adjustments in portfolios and shifts in fund allocations, made by institutional investors in the face of geopolitical uncertainty. These interviews provide a richer context to the quantitative data obtained previously and will provide deeper insights into investor behaviour in response to geopolitical tensions. Comparative Analysis: To better understand the impact of geopolitical tensions, this study also adopts a comparative analysis approach. By comparing previous periods of tensions or conflicts in the Middle East, such as the war with Iraq or the Lebanon conflict, this research seeks to identify emerging patterns in financial market responses. This will help assess how the impact of Iran-Israel tensions relates to past tensions and whether there has been a change in global investment strategies over the past few decades. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 1. Impact of Iran-Israel tensions on Global Stock Markets Geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Israel, as they occur during periods of tension, often have a significant impact on global stock markets. In this study, we observe stock price fluctuations in several major global indices, including the S&P 500, FTSE 100, and Nikkei 225, during periods of tension involving the two countries. In general, prolonged geopolitical tensions or escalation into open conflict between Iran and Israel led to a decline in global stock prices. Regression analysis shows a significant relationship between geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and stock price declines. For example, as tensions escalate, major stock indices such as the S&P 500 experience sharp declines, reflecting the uncertainty generated by the potential escalation of the conflict. These stock price fluctuations are often fuelled by market speculation about the possible impact of the war on the global economy. In addition, global stock market volatility fuelled by tensions between Iran and Israel can be measured through a volatility indicator known as the VIX (Volatility Index). During periods of high tension, the VIX shows significant spikes, signalling increased fear and uncertainty among investors. VIX is often used to measure market risk perception, and spikes in VIX reflect negative sentiment in global stock markets. However, the impact of these tensions is not always long-term. The stock price declines that occur as a result of these geopolitical tensions are often temporary, with global stock markets experiencing a recovery after some time. This is due to the resilience of global financial markets, fuelled by high liquidity and strong monetary policy interventions by the world’s major central banks. -- 4 of 16 -- 2. The Effect of Iran-Israel Tensions on Energy Prices One of the main impacts of tensions in the Middle East is a spike in energy prices, particularly oil. Tensions between Iran and Israel can affect key energy shipping lanes in the region, such as the Strait of Hormuz, which is the world’s main oil shipping route. Given that Iran has great power in controlling access to the Strait of Hormuz, tensions between the two countries often cause uncertainty regarding global energy supplies. In this analysis, Brent and WTI crude oil prices are analysed to assess how geopolitical tensions affect the energy market. The data shows that oil prices tend to increase significantly during periods of high tension. For example, during tensions in 2012, triggered by Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil prices jumped more than 20% within two months, reflecting the uncertainty generated by the potential conflict. This increase in oil prices affects the global economy, with the impact felt in major energy-consuming countries such as the United States, Europe, and emerging economies. This rise in energy prices has the potential to cause inflation in major consuming countries, which in turn can affect monetary policy and investment decisions. For example, a sharp rise in energy prices could trigger tighter central bank policies, potentially affecting stock markets and international capital flows. In addition, oil price spikes also impact other commodity markets, including natural gas and coal. Rising energy prices are often followed by a surge in the prices of other commodity goods, adding to inflationary pressures in the global market. Therefore, tensions involving Iran and Israel could have a major impact on the global economy through spikes in energy prices. 3. Changes in International Capital Alira The prolonged geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel affected international capital flows, with investors tending to shift their funds to safer assets. This is evident through shifts in portfolio allocations made by institutional investors and large financial institutions around the world. During periods of high tension, investors tend to avoid risks associated with countries directly involved in the conflict or directly exposed to such geopolitical tensions. Analysis of international capital flow data shows that global investors prefer to invest in developed countries with higher levels of political stability, such as the United States, Japan, and European countries. This is reflected in increased investment in the stock markets of these countries, as well as higher foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to countries that are considered safer. In addition, demand for safe assets such as gold and strong currencies, such as the US dollar, also increases sharply during geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, emerging markets, particularly those located in the Middle East and North Africa, experienced a significant decline in capital flows. Investors tend to withdraw their investments from these countries due to uncertainties arising from geopolitical tensions. This shows how tensions between Iran and Israel can lead to a decline in foreign direct and portfolio investment into countries that are perceived to be riskier. However, while global capital flows show a tendency to avoid countries with high tensions, there are also investors who utilise geopolitical tensions -- 5 of 16 -- to make long-term investments in certain sectors that are affected by changes in energy prices. The energy sector, for example, is often a haven for investors seeking to capitalise on spikes in oil and gas prices that occur during periods of geopolitical tension. 4. Global Investment Policy Reaction to Geopolitical Uncertainty Global investment policies are also changing along with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In response to the uncertainty generated by tensions between Iran and Israel, many institutional investors have chosen to adopt a more cautious diversification strategy. They tend to strengthen their positions in sectors considered safe, such as the technology sector and the healthcare sector, while reducing their exposure to sectors directly exposed to geopolitical tensions, such as energy and emerging markets. This analysis shows that large investors, such as pension funds, hedge funds and international banks, often focus on risk reduction and protection of their portfolios during periods of geopolitical tension. They prefer to hold more stable assets, such as bonds of developed countries or stocks of large companies that have strong financial foundations and are less affected by political turmoil. In addition, investors also tend to allocate more funds for investment in countries with more stable fiscal and monetary policies. This can be seen from the increase in investment in developed markets that have a higher level of economic stability compared to emerging markets that are more vulnerable to political tensions. CONCLUSION This research reveals that geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Israel have far- reaching impacts on global investment policy. These tensions affect various sectors of the global economy, ranging from stock markets to energy prices, and alter the course of international capital flows. Based on analyses of historical data, these geopolitical tensions lead to fluctuations in global stock markets, followed by spikes in energy prices, which are often indicators of uncertainty in financial markets. In response to this uncertainty, institutional investors and large financial institutions tend to shift their investments to safer assets and countries with higher levels of political stability, such as developed countries. In particular, the energy sector, which is heavily affected by tensions in the Middle East, has become a highly volatile and high-risk sector. Oil and gas prices often spike sharply during periods of geopolitical tension, leading to global inflation and affecting monetary policy in major economies. Investors looking to protect their portfolios under these conditions of geopolitical uncertainty choose to invest in more stable sectors, such as technology and healthcare, and avoid sectors that are directly exposed to geopolitical risks. This shift in capital flows reflects a natural response to uncertainty, with investors tending to shift their funds to safer markets, particularly developed markets. Nonetheless, there are investors capitalising on these tensions to make long-term investments in certain energy-related sectors, which tend to increase during geopolitical tensions. -- 6 of 16 -- Global investment policy showed considerable adaptation to these geopolitical tensions, with a focus on portfolio diversification and reduced exposure to conflict- prone countries. The decline in investment flows to countries directly involved in geopolitical tensions, as seen in Middle Eastern and North African countries, underscores the importance of political stability in investment decision-making. Thus, this study confirms that geopolitical tensions, particularly those involving Iran and Israel, can significantly affect global investment policy. Going forward, it is important for investors and policymakers to take these geopolitical impacts into account in planning and making investment decisions, as well as in formulating policies that can mitigate the negative impact of geopolitical tensions on the global economy. REFERENCE Rismawati, R., & Asriani, AR (2016). The Influence of Internal Audit on the Implementation of Good Corporate Governance at PT. FIF PALOPO BRANCH. Journal of Accounting, STIE Muhammadiyah Palopo , 2 (1). Rismawati, R., & Mattalata, SE (2018). 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Evaluating -- 12 of 16 -- Student Insights, Attitudes, and Understandings on Green Accounting within the Green Economy Framework, 33(10), 2565-2577. Rismawati, R. (2021). Exploration of Tellu Sipa’s value in improving online- based abstract sequential thinking ability. Rismawati, R., Nurhaedah, N., & Norris, S. (2023). Personal role in the mediation of entrepreneurship education on interest in entrepreneurship. Ekuilibrium: Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Ilmu Ekonomi, 18(1), 11-21. Rismawati, R., Darsono, T., Pujotomo, D., Tunjungsari, H., Numberi, A., Korniawan, R., ... & Agustiyanto, A. (2024). Exploring the relationship between sustainable supply chain and sustainable development goals on the financial performance of SMEs. Uncertain Supply Chain Management, 12(3), 1911-1922. Ilyas, G. B., Widiawati, K., SUHAIMI, S., RISMAWATI, R., BUDIYANTI, S., & AZIZURROHMAN, M. (2023). Exploring a New Destination Image: A Case Study of Suranadi Village. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism, 14(6), 2659-2672. Rismawati, R., Retnowati, W., & Supriadi, S. (2024). Ulil Albab: An Ancient Methodology for Building Corporate Spiritual Responsibility (CSpR). Journal of Applied Business, Taxation and Economics Research, 3(6), 739-751. Salju, S., Rismawati, R., & Bachtiar, M. D. (2016). Pengaruh Kompetensi dan Independensi Terhadap Kinerja Auditor Pemerintah Kabupaten Luwu Timur. Equilibrium: Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi, Manajemen dan Akuntansi, 4(2). Esti, E., Junaidi, J., & Rismawati, R. (2024, September). Influence Of Social Awareness And Islamic Principles On Nasabah Trust In Bank Syariah. In International Conference of Business, Education, Health, and Scien- Tech (Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 1035-1047). Nur, A., Rismawati, R., & Rahmawati, R. (2024). The Influence Of Csr Strategy Evaluation On Sustainable Community Development. The Influence Of Csr Strategy Evaluation On Sustainable Community Development, 8(03), 1-11. Amrin, E., Rismawati, R., Goso, G., & Asriany, A. (2022). Studi Komparasi Layanan Fintech Dalam Meningkatkan Keuangan Inklusif Pada Umkm Di -- 13 of 16 -- Kota Palopo. Ecobisma (Jurnal Ekonomi, Bisnis Dan Manajemen), 9(2), 114-125. Haris, A., Rismawati, R., Marlina, M., & Mustomi, O. (2025). The Economic Vibrancy of Muslims during Ramadan. AMCA Journal of Community Development, 5(2), 22-26. TN, Muhammad, Rismawati, Amirullah, W Javaid Ahmad, N Elmiati (2025). Negotiating Islamic Identity Through Cultural Adaptation: A Fiqh al- Aqalliyyat Analysis of Masselle aseng Practice in Indonesian Muslim Minorities. Jurnal Ilmiah Al-Syir’ah 23 (1), 117 – 138 I Pratama, R Rismawati, I Pribadi, M Aqsa, D Duriani. (2024). Digital Finance And Financial Literacy: Key Drivers Of MSME Success In Emerging Economies. International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Management Practices 7 (27) A Paskawati, S Salju, R Rismawati, (2024). Managing Work-Life Balance To Optimize Employee Welfare And Productivity. Journal International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Management Practices, Volume 7. Issue 27. Pages.458-474. Publisher. Global Academic Exellence I Irawati, S Salju, R. Rismawati (2024). Effect Of Employee Development And Transformational Leadership Style On Employee Performance Through Organizational Commitment. Journal International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Management Practices. Volume 7. Issue 27. Pages 353-369. Publisher, Global Academic Exellence F Alwy, R Rismawati, I Pribadi, M Aqsa, D & Duriani. (2024). The Impact Of Intelectual Capital Dan Internal Control Systems On The Quality Of Financial Reporting In Public Sector Organization: East Luwu Regency Bkad Case Study. Journal International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Management Practices. Volume 7. Issue 27. Pages 290-303. Publisher Global Academic Exellence Nurdin Indrawaty, Aqsa Muhammad, Rismawati, Duriani (2024). Influence Of Financial Administration And Accounting Information Systems On The Quality Of Reports Regional Finance. Journal International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Management Practices. Volume 7. Issue 27. Pages 264-276. Publisher Global Academic Exellence Ginting Yanti Mayasari, Rismawati Rismawati, Aisyah Siti (2024). The Moderating Role of Work Environment in the Relationship Between Or Between Organisational Cultur ganisational Culture, Emplo e, Employee -- 14 of 16 -- Motiv ee Motivation, Performance …Journal The South East Asian Journal of Management. Volume 18. Issue 2. Pages pp. 125-147. Publisher Uninersitas Indonesia Rismawati, Retnowati Wulan, Supriadi. (2024). Ulil Albab: An Ancient Methodology for Building Corporate Spiritual Responsibility Journal Journal of Applied Business, Taxation and Economics Research (JABTER). Volume 3. Issue 6. Publisher Equator Science Irawati, Salju, Rismawati (2024). Managing Work-Life Balance To Optimize Employee Welfare And Productivity. International Journal Of Entrepreneurship And Management Practices. Volume 7. Issue 27. Pages 353-369. Publisher Global Academic Exellence Suharni, Rismawati, Haedar (2024). The Influence of Compensation and Work Discipline on Employee Performance at the Branch Office of BRI in Palopo City. Conference. The Evolving of SDG’s in Advancing Business Longevity from Accounting International View”. Volume 4. Pages 371- 379 Publisher https://openjournal.unpam.ac.id/index.php/PISA/issue/view/1590 Riswandiansyah Jaya.P, Rismawati, Sahrir (2024). Impact Analysis of Local Tax Policy on Local Own-Source Revenue: A Quantitative Approach in Palopo. Proceeding: The Evolving of SDG’s in Advancing Business Longevity from Accounting International View”. Volume 4. Issue 4. Pages 317-325. Publisher https://openjournal.unpam.ac.id/index.php/PISA/issue/view/1590 Nurazizah Al Kaizaha, Rismawati, Asriany (2024). Analysis of the Influence of Digital Marketing Strategy on Customer Satisfaction at BRI PALOPO Branch. Proceeding: The Evolving of SDG’s in Advancing Business Longevity from Accounting International View” Volume 4. Issue 4. Pages 269-278 Publisher https://openjournal.unpam.ac.id/index.php/PISA/issue/view/1590 Hamsisa Sanade, Rismawati, Riyanti. (2024). Analysis of Accounting Students’ Awareness and Preference toward Environmental Information in Financial Statements: An Experimental Study in Higher Education Environment. Proceeding: The Evolving of SDG’s in Advancing Business Longevity from Accounting International View” Volume 4. Issue 4. Pages 190-200 Publisher https://openjournal.unpam.ac.id/index.php/PISA/issue/view/1590 -- 15 of 16 -- Suharnia, Rismawati, Haedar (2024). The Influence of Compensation and Work Discipline on Employee Performance at the Branch Office of BRI in Palopo City Proceeding: The Evolving of SDG’s in Advancing Business Longevity from Accounting International View” Proceeding: The Evolving of SDG’s in Advancing Business Longevity from Accounting International View” Volume 4. Issue 4. Pages 371-380 Publisher https://openjournal.unpam.ac.id/index.php/PISA/issue/view/1590 Rachman, M., Rismawati, R., & Jasman, J. STRATEGY FOR DEVELOPING 21ST CENTURY SKILLS: OPTIMIZING HUMAN RESOURCES FOR BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY. STRATEGY FOR DEVELOPING 21ST CENTURY SKILLS: OPTIMIZING HUMAN RESOURCES FOR BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY, 2, 345-350. Rismawati, R., & Supriadi, S. (2024). Strategi Percepatan Penjaminan Mutu: Penguatan Melalui Akreditasi Perguruan Tinggi. INVENTORY: JURNAL AKUNTANSI, 8(1), 52-61. -- 16 of 16 --