"The geographic shift visible in KOMIS figures may represent a change in country of last processing, not in upstream origin." [KOMIS]
This quote identifies the specific mechanism — country-of-last-processing versus upstream origin — by which import statistics can misrepresent true supply chain exposure, directly supporting the signal's structural claim.
Reasoning from this article
The antimony case illustrates a broader vulnerability in how allied governments measure supply chain diversification: bilateral trade statistics track shipment origin, not mineral provenance through the full processing chain. Since China dominates refining capacity for many critical minerals globally, third-country processing of Chinese-origin concentrates can appear as diversification in customs data while leaving strategic exposure unchanged. This gap applies to any nation using import-origin statistics as a proxy for supply security.