Marco andrea@passaglia.it
The Bellwether

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Non-aligned critical mineral strategy emerging as a third pole resisting US-China binary in supply chain competition

str 8 5/8/2026 · 1 article
structural · economic · geopolitics, critical minerals · BR, US, CN, EU
Analysis

By explicitly welcoming Chinese, American, German, Japanese, and French investment on equal terms, Brazil is operationalizing a non-aligned posture in the critical minerals contest, undermining Washington's friend-shoring strategy and preserving Beijing's access to key inputs.

Key actors
LulaTrump
Source article
Lula won’t sideline China or anyone in rare earths, tells Trump refining stays in Brazil
"Americans, Chinese, Germans, Japanese, French, whoever wants to participate with us to help us mine, separate and produce the wealth" [Americans, Chinese, Germans, Japanese, French]
Reasoning from this article

The enumeration of rival great powers and allied nations in a single breath as equally welcome investors is a direct structural counter to the US 'friend-shoring' doctrine, which seeks to route critical mineral supply chains through allied nations only. If major reserve holders like Brazil adopt this posture, the US strategy of China-excluding supply chains becomes geometrically harder to execute, since the chokepoint shifts from processing (China's current advantage) to raw reserves (where Brazil, DRC, and others hold leverage). This dynamic is likely to recur as other resource-rich developing nations observe Brazil extracting diplomatic and economic concessions from both sides simultaneously.

Bellwether · 2026 Marco