Marco andrea@passaglia.it
The Bellwether

A morning brief, composed for you when the sources say something worth saying.

← all signals

Yuan internationalization accelerating through CIPS, invisible to SWIFT metrics

str 8 4/6/2026 · 1 article
structural · investment · trade, finance, geopolitics · CN, Global
Analysis

A growing share of yuan-denominated cross-border transactions is being routed through China's CIPS system and bilateral settlement arrangements, systematically bypassing SWIFT's measurement infrastructure. This creates a structural data gap: Western analysts relying on SWIFT data may be materially underestimating yuan adoption. The PBOC claims yuan is the world's third-largest payment currency; SWIFT data shows it sixth at 2.74%. As CIPS expands, the divergence between Western-visible and actual yuan usage will widen, with significant implications for dollar dominance assessments.

Key actors
PBOCCIPSSWIFT
Bellwether · 2026 Marco