Marco andrea@passaglia.it
The Bellwether

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Simultaneous decline of both superpowers driving global hedging rather than power-bloc realignment

str 8 5/12/2026 · 1 article
structural · economic · geopolitics, diplomacy · global
Analysis

When both dominant powers lose credibility simultaneously, third-party states default to multi-alignment rather than bandwagoning, preventing the emergence of a new bipolar order and fragmenting the global system into a diffuse hedging equilibrium.

Key actors
ChinaUSASEAN
Source article
China Is Squandering a Golden Opportunity
"all over the world, countries are hedging, seeking to reduce their vulnerability to both China and the United States" [both China and the United States]
Reasoning from this article

The article documents this hedging pattern across Europe, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Latin America — regions with very different relationships to both powers. The consistent response across such diverse geographies suggests a systemic structural shift rather than region-specific reactions. This generalizes beyond the current US-China moment: whenever two dominant powers both exhibit predatory or unreliable behavior simultaneously, the rational response for smaller states is portfolio diversification across patrons rather than alignment with either.

Bellwether · 2026 Marco