Marco andrea@passaglia.it
The Bellwether

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Middle-power soft-balancing networks emerging as structurally harder for dominant regional powers to counter than formal alliances

str 8 5/12/2026 · 1 article
structural · military · geopolitics, defense · IN, VN, CN, Southeast Asia
Analysis

As great-power competition intensifies, mid-sized states are building informal strategic convergence networks that constrain dominant powers without triggering the clear alliance-counter-alliance logic those powers are equipped to manage. This asymmetry makes soft balancing a more durable and harder-to-neutralize structural force than formal treaty arrangements.

Key actors
IndiaVietnamChina
Source article
Why Is China Watching India-Vietnam Relations Carefully
""soft balancing" networks are far more difficult to counter. In this model, countries don't openly oppose China, but instead coordinate step by step" [soft balancing]
Reasoning from this article

The article generalizes beyond India-Vietnam to a broader pattern: middle powers across the Indo-Pacific are building overlapping, non-alliance partnerships that cumulatively constrain dominant powers. This dynamic is not unique to China-India-Vietnam — it mirrors how ASEAN states, Gulf states, and others hedge against both US and Chinese pressure simultaneously. The structural insight is that the absence of a formal alliance actually makes these networks more durable, since they cannot be dissolved by a single diplomatic rupture or treaty withdrawal.

Bellwether · 2026 Marco