"maritime traffic collapsed by almost 95 percent – not because of sustained naval confrontation in the strait, but because shipowners, insurers, and seafarers" [95 percent]
The 95% traffic collapse without sustained naval confrontation directly quantifies the mechanism: uncertainty alone, not physical closure, achieved near-total disruption — the core claim of the signal.
Reasoning from this article
The article generalizes this beyond Iran: any state controlling a chokepoint with asymmetric tools (mines, GNSS spoofing, AIS suppression, selective tolls) can now impose near-blockade effects without triggering the conventional military response that a formal closure would invite. This redefines deterrence calculus at all major maritime chokepoints globally — Malacca, Bab-el-Mandeb, Taiwan Strait — where similar hybrid toolkits exist or could be assembled.