Iran war validates Western missile defense, reshapes China's Taiwan calculus

The Iran war demonstrated that high-end Western missile defense systems intercepted the vast majority of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones — far exceeding pre-war expectations. This directly challenges the foundational assumption of Chinese (and Russian, North Korean) military planning: that mass long-range strikes could neutralize US air and naval operations in an opening salvo. If China's anti-access/area-denial strategy depends on missile salvos suppressing US forces, the Iran war suggests those salvos may be far less decisive than the PLA has planned for. This is a significant input into Chinese deterrence calculations regarding Taiwan.