Hormuz oil shock transmitting structurally into China's manufacturing cost base

Brent crude at $96-105/barrel — up ~40% from pre-conflict $70 — is now visibly disrupting China's manufacturing sector through two channels: petroleum-based raw material costs and elevated freight rates. Order cancellations and deferrals are appearing in home appliances and cross-border e-commerce, and China's factory-gate prices rose for the first time in three years in March. This is structurally significant because it demonstrates that the Iran war's economic transmission into China is operating faster and more broadly than a simple energy import shock — it is hitting export competitiveness and domestic demand simultaneously, compressing China's margin for absorbing external shocks.