Rare earth talent gap makes US supply chain independence structurally implausible near-term

Multiple signals converge on a structural finding: the US rare earth deficit is not primarily a capital or resource problem but a human capital problem — decades of deindustrialization have erased the engineering knowledge base required to operate processing facilities. The EU's simultaneous launch of a critical minerals procurement platform (RESourceEU) confirms that both Western blocs recognize the dependency but are pursuing institutional workarounds rather than genuine domestic capability rebuilding. With Trump-Xi talks in May expected to feature rare earths prominently, China holds durable leverage that cannot be neutralized within any politically relevant timeframe.